An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.
“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that go beyond previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.
“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a military endeavour?”
It was blunt language from the middle-aged born in Scotland MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.
And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.
This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.
One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.
But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and political instincts to make it to the top.
Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.
It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.
And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.
With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.
He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.
His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.
Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.
While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.
“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”
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