Within the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.
The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.
He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.
Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden additional military gambits.
Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.
We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.
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