Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.